So today I'm working on an update to my GeyserLog app, fixing some stupid bugs, and getting ready to do another release. Also working on a newer app that will get field testing in August if everything works out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The webcam is being displayed on another screen, and working on the app gets me to see changes in the database almost in real time. A lot of postings do seem to disappear after a while. It's also amusing to watch the Turban Delay number get bigger as I'm working\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I see this comment on Grand, from something calling itself \"guysirgooner (Guy Sir)\", which registered less than an hour before making the posting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\"Pool is full. Waiting on turban to bust. Need waves and bubbles. Surely 17:15.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was a second, similar comment to this a few minutes prior that disappeared before I had a chance to also note it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Shortly after that, Graham posts a Turban eruption time with the comment, \"D0. Late fill at 20m mark.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n
To which this same person comments: \"D0? But yea this one went off for sure. I just saw it a couple minutes ago.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I flag the Grand post: \"Do not report Turban Delays with Grand notes. (And geysers don't \"bust\")\". <\/p>\n\n\n\n
(Attempting to add the flag from my app actually revealed another bug in need of fixing, as I wasn't logged in, but the app acted like the flag went through, instead of correctly displaying an error. So I did it from the website instead.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I fix that posting bug (easy fix, but it appeared in multiple locations), and then after a while I get an email message from GeyserTImes saying a positing I flagged has been changed. It appears that a long diatribe was appended to the Grand comment. Quoted here in full for your edification and amusement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nMy response to the flag is as follows: Calling Turban a \u201cflag\u201d for delay is rookie-tier Grand analysis. Turban behavior absolutely correlates with delayed Grand intervals in many cycles because it reflects continued energy\/water redistribution in the vent complex instead of a fully stabilized recharge state. That\u2019s not controversial if you actually watch the basin instead of parroting simplified interval charts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Notes 44931 and 44495 both discuss\/mention Turban-related behavior associated with delayed Grand eruptions. The entire point is that Grand is not an isolated vent \u2014 it is dynamically linked with Turban and Vent. Persistent or unusually active Turban behavior can indicate heat\/water being bled off or system instability before Grand commits to eruption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
People love pretending Grand is a perfect timer. It isn\u2019t. The \u201caverage interval\u201d crowd gets humbled constantly because Grand responds to:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n
- number\/strength of prior bursts<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- recharge efficiency<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Turban\/Vent activity<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- minor seismic\/water level fluctuations<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- overflow characteristics<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- basin-wide thermal interactions<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
If Turban is highly active late in the interval, especially with strong sustained boiling or atypical surging, experienced watchers absolutely factor that into eruption expectations. Nobody who seriously studies Grand dismisses Turban observations outright.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The funniest part is acting like observational heuristics are invalid unless they\u2019re a binary deterministic predictor. Geyser forecasting is probabilistic hydrodynamics, not a microwave timer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I\u2019d trust basin-side pattern recognition over internet armchair \u201cflags\u201d every time.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
I amended my flag: <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nThe added comments do not address the problem-- This comment is still inappropriate and added to the wrong feature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The long, arrogant lecture on Grand's behavior, ending with \"I\u2019d trust basin-side pattern recognition over internet armchair \u201cflags\u201d every time.\" is especially amusing, considering to whom it is being addressed.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
After I amended the flag, I decided to do this posting to capture this exchange. Because, as expected, shortly after the One Burst Grand eruption (on the third Turban eruption after the Delay), the flagged note, along with the long comment, disappeared. I decided that all the work and wisdom that that person put into the reply should not be lost forever.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now back to application development, as I eagerly await more \"basin-side\" observations and insights from \"Guy Sir\".<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Update<\/strong> 19:15: <\/p>\n\n\n\n
A post-Grand comment from \"Guy Sir\":<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nCrazy how people were \u201cwaiting for more signs\u201d while I literally called the exact eruption time and then the post gets deleted after being right. Some of y\u2019all watch Grand like it\u2019s astrology instead of actually understanding interval behavior, Turban pacing, and vent dynamics. The geyser does not care about your vibes-based predictions.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
So today I'm working on an update to my GeyserLog app, fixing some stupid bugs, and getting ready to do another release. Also working on a newer app that will get field testing in August if everything works out. The webcam is being displayed on another screen, and working on the app gets me to … Continue reading \"Guy Sir speaks\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[133,5,3],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/geysers.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3995"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/geysers.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/geysers.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/geysers.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/geysers.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3995"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"http:\/\/geysers.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3995\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4006,"href":"http:\/\/geysers.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3995\/revisions\/4006"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/geysers.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3995"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/geysers.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3995"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/geysers.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3995"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}