Observations for 14 July 2013


Came out at 02:00 for my first perfectly clear night this year. Stayed for a dawn eruption of Grand. In the meantime, Grand made an attempt to erupt signified by the sound of the overflow and the short, vigorous Turban eruption. The next Turban eruption had no overflow at all, so I decided that I was going to get lucky and it would erupt the next time, for a nice, noisy eruption in the dark.

Instead there was no real pattern to the Turban intervals, so that finally, five more Turban intervals later, it looked like it would be yet another one to wait. Grand had not overflowed at not just the usual time, around 14m30s, but at 18m30s, was still quiet. So it was a bit of a surprise that when Turban started, it again sounded like the times Grand would erupt after it. But there was a enough light to see that the pool was now overflowing, and fairly heavily. So about 1m30 into Turban, Grand finally started up. The wind, fortunately, was away so that it was possible to see some of the activity before completely obscured.

Not much happened until it was time for the next Grand. Rift was already active, so we had to wait for the hour and a half activity to quit.

Early in the wait we heard that Fountain had erupted with a 37m duration. This is long enough to indicate that Morning might attempt to erupt on the next opportunity. I did some quick calculations, and realized that the longer Grand took this time, the less the two windows would over lap. So I publicly stated my desires for a long interval, one to match the one I'd experienced earlier in the day. This was not appreciated by others waiting there.

As in the previous interval, Grand and Turban showed no pattern, until we passed the eight hour mark. Then the Turban intervals were dropping in length. I noticed that in the last case, Grand was already full and overflowing at 11m30s. This rise continued, so that by fifteen minutes, Vent was overflowing and Grand was having large waves. Again, the wind favored us, also not knocking down the large Vent activity.

So I went out to Fountain a little bit early in order to avoid a pending Old Faithful eruption exit, and in case there were any jam ups along the way. So of course I had to wait about three hours for Fountain to finally erupt. I did spend a little time watching it, instead of rushing off. So of course when I got back and changed into clothing more appropriate for a nighttime wait, and as I biked past the Lodge, I saw Grand erupting a little more than six hours after having three consecutive intervals of about nine hours.

I think it's time for people to realize that Beehive's Indicator is meaningless when it comes to predicting Beehive eruptions. The Indicator has the same relationship that Turban has with Grand: Beehive erupts with the Indicator, which erupts on its own with its own intervals. Or, Beehive should just be considered dormant with occasional eruptions. Yes, it erupted tonight, after about a dozen Indicator eruptions.